Calculated Risks has ratings and 46 reviews. Gerd Gigerenzer möchte uns mit seinem Buch “Das Einmaleins der Skepsis” zwei wichtige Dinge vermitteln. Buy a cheap copy of Calculated Risks: How to Know When book by Gerd Gigerenzer. In the tradition of Innumeracy by John Allen Paulos, German scientist . 7 May The Hardcover of the Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You by Gerd Gigerenzer at Barnes & Noble. FREE Shipping on.

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Any symptom or evidence comes with certain degree of uncertainty and evaluating that uncertainty is calculated risks gerd gigerenzer crucial step towards conclusion. The author persuasively argues that ineffective presentations using relative or single-event probabilities clouds the mind of readers including medical and law professionals and induces misleading perspectives.

CALCULATED RISKS: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

Now, false negatives are possible too calculated risks gerd gigerenzer when someone who has the virus receives a result that says he does not have it. For example, imagine that out of 10, people who are tested for HIV, 1 is infected, and this individual will test positive with almost absolute certainty. Calculated risks gerd gigerenzer eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ferd of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.

This is an insightful and easy read without any maths required. Cognitive scientis At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. The February issue of Scientific American magazine calculated risks gerd gigerenzer at prostate cancer screening, one of the areas this book also uses to showcase and demonstrate it’s techniques.

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You by Gerd Gigerenzer

So out of 9, people who are not really infected with the virus, another 1 individual will receive a false positive result. Thanks for telling us about the problem. Oct 15, Joe rated it really liked it Recommends it for: This is an important topic for everyone.

All innumerates—buyers, sellers, students, professors, doctors, patients, lawyers and their clients, politicians, voters, writers and readers—have something to learn calculated risks gerd gigerenzer Gigerenzer’s quirky—yet understandable—book.

Calculated Risks | Book by Gerd Gigerenzer | Official Publisher Page | Simon & Schuster

Apr 08, Pyoungsung Choi rated it it was amazing. Want to Read Currently Reading Read. Thinking in terms of natural frequencies—the raw numbers—is better for most people, including the doctors and lawyers who are indisputably awful at math.

And in that case, it stems from a failure of clinicians to properly convert the risk factors, test performance data, and actual test results into an absolute probability for the patient. Presenting students with real-world court cases that have been overturned due to the defendant’s attorney clearing up statistical misunderstandings by simply using natural frequencies like 4 in 1, rather than probabilities, like 0.

I don’t know this woman’s medical history, but I can say that the time spent waiting for calculated risks gerd gigerenzer biopsy was a calculated risks gerd gigerenzer one for her. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics.

Gerd Gigerenzer is a German psychologist who has studied the use of bounded rationality and heuristics in decision making, especially in medicine. At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. I’ve passed 4 statistics courses so far, and this book is by far the most useful text on correct use of statistics I have ever seen. If you like books and love to build cool products, we may be looking for you.

This knowledge is timeless, and to focus in on just one area the book covers: This should be required reading for physicians, policy makers and project manager, they have too many critical decisions to make to be deceived by the illusion of certainty. Let’s just say it’s hard to imagine a book about statistics flying off the shelves although John Allen Paulos’s Innumeracy was a bestseller just two calculated risks gerd gigerenzer back.

Refresh and try again. I’d read about probabilistic and natural frequencies before, but until now, I’d never realised what those claims made about the reliability of DNA fingerprinting matches really implied, and how ambiguous calculated risks gerd gigerenzer numbers About everyday situations which require people to make decisions based on statistics, and the way those statistics are badly misunderstood and miscommunicated. The last few chapters are the weaker part of the book.

Apparently, GPs and surgeons are not as numerate as you would hope, so calculated risks gerd gigerenzer makes me feel better or not, if in their hands. Feb 18, Elizabeth rated it really liked it. Calculated risks gerd gigerenzer author gives some very clear illustrations on how statistics can be used to mislead but more importantly, gives examples of how to present calculated risks gerd gigerenzer more clearly as well as how to avoid being mislead.

Human minds are not adapted to probability Books by Gerd Gigerenzer. We hear LOTS of statistics in the media when reporting news on our health, politics, environment, etc. This is an important topic for The book discusses different presentations on statistical numbers, especially rare incidents such as HIV infection and breast cancer in which false positives are prevailent.

Then, if a test shows positive, how probable is it to actually have a cancer? More’s the pity, because, as I said, some good obfuscated stuff in here.

Because they’re bad at math and generally dishonest, lawyers will argue that the probability of innocence is equal to a chance match, which is usually abysmally low and therefore argues for guilt. Calculated risks gerd gigerenzer thanks for joining us, SciAm article authors, better late than never!

Anyone studying the results of a medical test, or considering a medical test or calculated risks gerd gigerenzer program. It shows through different examples how most of us really don’t understand or grasp statistical information or probabilities and how we are driven to the direction which seems to have the highest rate of percentage of succession but instead in reality matters only marginally.

While the concepts are valid in many fields, the focus of this gigernzer is upon medicine. Always keep Bayes’ theorem in your back pocket so that you can interpret risks appropriately.

Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors.

The main themes are strong but few, and I got bogged down in the many too many examples. In this book, professor Gigerenzer says risk innumeracy stems more from representation of risks rather than from one’s IQ. Providing a better calculated risks gerd gigerenzer is critical, when we think about how often we come across claims disguised in statistics.

This means that on average, out of every 2 people who test positive, only 1 calculated risks gerd gigerenzer the virus, and not the other. It’s a mesmerizing statistics book. One of those books that makes you wish you would have paid more attention at school math classes.

This guy stands firmly by his claims and backs it up with research. Out of without cancer, about calculated risks gerd gigerenzer will still test positive.

Yes, important stuff and this book exhaustively and minutely explores these errors in risk calculation and communication.